Saturday, October 22, 2005

The Pseudo-Science of Weather

Our friend over at Steel Cowboy calls them "weather liars." He has a point.

Weathermen like to think of themselves as "scientists." If you challenge that notion, you are looked upon with disdain.

But let me tell you about science. (If you don't want to be told about science, simply stop reading now.)

Science has some particular characteristics: Science must be "observable." Science must be "predictable." Science must be "replicatable."

Some "sciences" are good at all three of those characteristics, some are not so good.

Physics is pretty good at all three, as long as the math is right.

If we know the distance to the moon, the velocity of the moon as it orbits the earth, the various frictions from the atmosphere of earth and a few other factors, we can put a lander on the moon, manned or unmanned.

Chemestry is pretty good at all three, again, with math a fairly critical component.

We can observe water. We can predict that combining two parts hydrogen with one part oxygen will produce water. And it will work every time.

Psychology is a philosopho-science. You can observe behavior. You can predict some behavior, but not very well, and occasionally you can replicate behavior. Most of psychology, though, is more philosophical than scientific.

Likewise, Sociology.

(For the record, Psychology and Sociology were my majors in college.)

Weather. Ah, weather.

You can certainly observe weather. You certainly can predict weather with only a hint of certainty. Weather cannot be replicated very well, except in small chambers and in computer models (which are tainted with the input of the data entry process.)

For instance, where goes hurricane Wilma?

The "cone of uncertainty," at this writing, covers almost the entire west coast of Florida, from the "big bend" to the Florida Keys. Thanks for the help, guys.

But then, why do we expect that the same people who cannot tell us with any accuracy whether or where it will rain, could begin to tell us where it will hurricane?

Why do we think they know what is happening with "global warming?"

There is a cold front that has made its way across much of the nation. Already, some states have had snow.

This is global warming?

The earths atmosphere is far too vast, and there is far too much data about which we do NOT know to be able to talk about weather or global warming with any degree of certainty.

If you think this atmosphere is big, you should consider the greatness of our Creator.

Isaiah tells us that His right hand spans the universe.

The Hubble space telescope has shown us that the universe is far more vast than even the best scientists had thought. They were rather taken by surprise by what it revealed.

And God's right hand spans it.

When we sing, "What a mighty God we serve," we ain't just whistlin' "Dixie."

When the splitting of an atom can release the energy to distroy Hiroshima, and the universe is made up of trillions of atoms to the trillionth power and the God we serve is more powerful than would be the splitting of them all, we must conclude that He is a fearful and awesome God.

That a God that powerful, that awesome, that mighty, that majestic, that holy and that righteous loves little ole "nothing" me is the most astonishing thought possible.

He is worthy of our worship. He is worthy of our praise. He is worthy of our devotion. He is worthy of our servitude. He is worthy of our self-lessness. He is worthy of our thanksgiving. He is worthy of our right attitudes. He is worthy of our time, talents and abilities. He is worthy of our giving 100% of ourselves to Him without any reservation at all.

Oh, and one more thing.

He knows where Wilma is going.

14 comments:

Jeremy Weaver said...

That is an amazing post, Joe. Very well put. God is greater than...

Rob Spooner said...

They haven't done well with Wilma, but they picked landfall for Katrina within a few dozen miles several days in advance.

A hundred years ago, no one would have known that Wilma existed before it hit somebody. Forty years ago, they could have spotted it from a satellite but wouldn't have known anything about where it was going.

The cone of uncertainty is shrinking. Chaos theory says that they will never be able to predict every hurricane within any predetermined error, but in another ten or fifteen years, when they can predict almost every hurricane to within a few miles, will you be impressed? Or will you just move the bar again.

From the scientist's standpoint, the fact that God knows where Wilma is going is not impressive since He doesn't put it in writing.

Lucy Stern said...

God definately sees it all. Our universe is massive and we will probably never know just how massive.

Living on the Gulf coast, I would still rather have that weather man, with all his educated guesses, than no weather man at all. With all the advances in the last few years (dopplar radar) we have several days to prepare for a storm. We may not be sure where it will arrive but at least we are prepared. Hopefully we are spirtually prepared to boot.

Joe said...

rob spooner: Thanks for coming by.
OK, so they got Katrina almost right. I've lived in Florida since 1942 and have seen a few 'canes. They have been, are, and always will be by-and-large, unpredictable because of the imense amount of data needed to predict their paths.

The cone of uncertainty for Wilma is one of the biggest I've ever seen. We msut be getting better, right? Right.

"Scientists" may not consider God impressive, but believe me, someday we will all know just how impressive He is.

Danny Sims said...

My favorite weatherman story is...

I was watching when the past 4 days high temps had been 80, 80, 60, and 60 degrees. The weather guy actually said, "This is an odd pattern since our average high this time of year is 70 degrees."

Hmmm...

Joe said...

Danny: I guess not all weatherpersons are math whizzes.

Rose~ said...

Joe,
You in Florida are in our thoughts and prayers.

He IS totally worthy of all those things from us that you have listed (even though we don't always deliver). He is also worthy of our trust in Him ... and the prayerful use of common sense. (These two, in harmony, would be helpful when in the path of a Hurricane. -contrasted with what was excersized by some of Katrina's poor victims that wouldn't leave).

God IS worthy of our trust, which is more than can be said of the weatherman! Good post.

Anonymous said...

Yes. He IS worthy. Reading that made me smile.

Pilot Mom said...

Oh, praise Him for how worthy He is! That will be a day, never to be forgotten, when we recognize the full greatness of Who He is!

Joe, I'm praying for you and Bonnie. Hope you are spared any damage.

Joe said...

Thanks, folks, for your prayers.

We are right dead center in the path of this storm. Fortunately, it is not as strong as it could have been, but one never knows.

God as it all in control.

Nettie said...

I liked sociology. It was the culmination of all my bits of random knowledge that I could finally show off.

Jeff H said...

"But then, why do we expect that the same people who cannot tell us with any accuracy whether or where it will rain, could begin to tell us where it will hurricane?"

I wasn't aware that "hurricane" was a verb.

Thanks for continuing to push the envelope on our staid, stagnant language.

Joe said...

Jeff: It wasn't.

But it is now.

Jeff H said...

Joe Scoggins: latter day S. I. Hiyakawa.